When does BTTS No make sense?
BTTS No wins if at least one team fails to score, so 0-0, 1-0 and 3-0 all win it. It makes sense when one side has a weak attack or faces a strong defence, and when the odds imply a lower chance than your own estimate. A low price alone is not a reason to back it.
How does BTTS No work?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is one of the most popular goals markets in football (soccer in the US). BTTS Yes needs a goal from each side; BTTS No wins every time that does not happen.
| Final score | Total goals | BTTS Yes | BTTS No |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 0 | Loses | Wins |
| 1-0 | 1 | Loses | Wins |
| 4-0 | 4 | Loses | Wins |
| 1-1 | 2 | Wins | Loses |
| 2-1 | 3 | Wins | Loses |
Notice that BTTS No is not the same as a low-scoring bet. A 4-0 wins BTTS No but loses Under 2.5 goals, while a 1-1 loses BTTS No but wins Under 2.5. BTTS No is a bet that one team draws a blank, however many the other scores. Bets are usually settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; check your bookmaker’s rules.
Which matches suit BTTS No?
BTTS No needs just one team to fail. The clearest cases usually involve:
- One weak attack. A team that often fails to score, especially away, gives BTTS No its main route.
- One strong defence. A side that keeps frequent clean sheets and allows little expected goals (xG) against.
- A big gap in quality. A strong favourite may score several and still keep the other side out, as in a 3-0.
- Cautious match context. Teams that need only a draw, or that tend to defend deep, create fewer chances.
Our guide on which stats predict BTTS explains the numbers behind these signals, such as “failed to score” and clean sheet rates.
How do you estimate the chance of BTTS No?
A simple method estimates the chance that each team scores, multiplies them for BTTS Yes, then subtracts from 1. This treats the two teams’ scoring as independent, which is a simplification.
In a hypothetical match:
- Chance home team scores: 70%
- Chance away team scores: 55%
- BTTS Yes = 0.70 × 0.55 = 0.385, or 38.5%
- BTTS No = 1 − 0.385 = 0.615, or 61.5%
- Fair odds for BTTS No = 1 / 0.615 = about 1.63
Even though the home side is likely to score, the away team’s 45% chance of a blank pushes BTTS No above 60% in this example.
When does the price offer value?
Compare your estimate with the bookmaker’s implied probability, which is 1 / decimal odds.
| BTTS No odds | Implied probability | Your estimate | Compared with your estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | 66.7% | 61.5% | Price too short |
| 1.63 | 61.3% | 61.5% | Roughly fair |
| 1.70 | 58.8% | 61.5% | Price longer than your estimate suggests |
At 1.70, expected value for a £10 bet is 0.615 × £7 − 0.385 × £10 = £4.31 − £3.85 = about £0.46. That is a small edge, and it only exists if your 61.5% estimate is right. At 1.50, the same bet has negative expected value by your own numbers. The same idea applies to any line; see how to spot value in goals markets.
When does BTTS No not make sense?
- When both attacks are in form and both defences leak. Two teams that score and concede most weeks push BTTS Yes up.
- When the price is short because of reputation. A famous defence with poor recent xG against may be priced on its name.
- When late goals are likely. A team chasing a result late on often commits players forward, which can produce a consolation goal that ends BTTS No in stoppage time.
- When the sample is tiny. Three clean sheets in a row say little; look at at least 10 matches, split home and away.
How does BTTS No relate to other markets?
If you think a specific team will keep a clean sheet, a clean sheet bet on that team pays more but wins in fewer scores. If you think one team will win and keep a clean sheet, win to nil is narrower still. BTTS No is the broadest of the three: it wins whichever team fails to score.
Where PRO Betting Tips fits
PRO Betting Tips is a football tips app for iOS and Android made by MICOM TECH, focused on goals markets such as BTTS and Over/Under, plus match result and double chance. Each match screen shows the app’s pick with its probability and odds and an AI preview, which you can compare with your own BTTS estimate. The app is free with an optional premium plan, for adults 18+, and is not a bookmaker.
18+. Betting involves risk; no prediction is guaranteed. If gambling stops being fun, visit BeGambleAware or call 1-800-GAMBLER in the US.